What is the OODA Decision loop?
A four-step process for making effective decisions in critical situations.
The OODA System - A four-step process for making effective decisions in critical situations.
The OODA loop Developed by strategist and U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd, the OODA loop is a practical concept designed to function as the foundation of rational thinking in confusing or chaotic situations. “OODA” stands for “Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act.”
O - Observe
Step one is to observe the situation with the aim of building the most accurate and comprehensive picture of it possible.
For example, a fighter pilot might consider the following factors in a broad, fluid way:
What is immediately affecting me?
What is affecting my opponent?
What could affect either of us later on?
Can I make any predictions?
How accurate were my prior predictions?
Information alone is insufficient. The observation stage requires converting information into an overall picture with overarching meaning that places it in context. A particularly vital skill is the capacity to identify which information is just noise and irrelevant for the current decision.
If you want to make good decisions, you need to master the art of observing your environment.
O - Orient
To orient, yourself is to recognize any barriers that might interfere with the other parts of the OODA Loop.
Orientation means connecting yourself with reality and seeing the world as it really is, as free as possible from the influence of cognitive biases and shortcuts. You can give yourself an edge over the competition by making sure you always orient before making a decision, instead of just jumping in.
Boyd maintained that properly orienting yourself can be enough to overcome an initial disadvantage, such as fewer resources or less information, to outsmart an opponent. He identified the following four main barriers that impede our view of objective information:
Our cultural traditions – we don’t realize how much of what we consider universal behavior is actually culturally prescribed
Our genetic heritage – we all have certain constraints
Our ability to analyze and synthesize – if we haven’t practiced and developed our thinking skills, we tend to fall back on old habits
The influx of new information – it is hard to make sense of observations when the situation keeps changing
The Snowmobile = Your Mental Models
Orient yourself according to your mental models, go through your mental models whichever is applied to a given situation.
To orient yourself, you have to build a metaphorical snowmobile by combining practical concepts from different disciplines.
My 9 mental Models
The map is not the territory
The circle of competence
The first principle thinking
Thought experiment
Probabilistic thinking
Second-order thinking
Inversion
Occam's Razor
Hanlon's Razor
D - Decide
There are no surprises here. The previous two steps provide the groundwork you need to make an informed decision. If there are multiple options at hand, you need to use your observation and orientation to select one.
Using first-conclusion bias, we cannot keep making the same decision again and again. This part of the loop needs to be flexible and open to Bayesian updating. The implication is that we should test the decisions we make at this point in the loop, spotting their flaws and including any issues in future observation stages
A- Act
There’s a difference between making decisions and enacting decisions. Once you make up your mind, it’s time to take action.
By taking action, you test your decision out. The results will hopefully indicate whether it was a good one or not, providing information for when you cycle back to the first part of the OODA Loop and begin observing anew.
Original Article - https://fs.blog/2021/03/ooda-loop/
The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions